Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Anderson Silva
Nick Diaz
66%
34%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
34-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
26-11
L2
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 5
Silva: 108 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 77 sig / 0 TD
Anderson Silva
Nick Diaz
77
Sig strikes landed
65
159
Sig strikes attempted
113
83
Total strikes landed
77
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Anderson Silva
"The Spider"
34-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
L2
Nick Diaz
26-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—