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Matt Van Buren vs Sean O'Connell

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver ·TD Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Matt Van Buren
Sean O'Connell
57% 43%
Why
29
Age
Δ 3y
31
7-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Van Buren: 100 sig / 0 TD · O'Connell: 66 sig / 0 TD
Matt Van Buren
Sean O'Connell
45
Sig strikes landed
54
122
Sig strikes attempted
123
57
Total strikes landed
87
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matt Van Buren

"Gutter"
7-7
Career record
Height
77"
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
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Blue corner
L2

Sean O'Connell

"The Real OC"
17-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
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L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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