Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Charles Rosa
Sean Soriano
49%
51%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
14-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Rosa: 37 sig / 5 TD ·
Soriano: 69 sig / 3 TD
Charles Rosa
Sean Soriano
26
Sig strikes landed
39
54
Sig strikes attempted
60
50
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
L2
Sean Soriano
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—