Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tateki Matsuda
Joby Sanchez
42%
58%
Why
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
13-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Matsuda: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 58 sig / 2 TD
Tateki Matsuda
Joby Sanchez
44
Sig strikes landed
41
90
Sig strikes attempted
97
58
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
152s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tateki Matsuda
"Tech"
13-9
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joby Sanchez
11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—