Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhang Lipeng
Chris Wade
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
24-9-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-3
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lipeng: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Wade: 47 sig / 4 TD
Zhang Lipeng
Chris Wade
24
Sig strikes landed
23
50
Sig strikes attempted
96
48
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
200s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Zhang Lipeng
"The Warrior"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Wade
13-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—