Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Holohan
Shane Howell
83%
17%
Why
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
12-3-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
13-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holohan: 42 sig / 3 TD ·
Howell: 22 sig / 0 TD
Paddy Holohan
Shane Howell
35
Sig strikes landed
37
69
Sig strikes attempted
132
62
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
262s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paddy Holohan
"The Hooligan"
12-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
L1
Shane Howell
13-11
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—