Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Howard
Lorenz Larkin
54%
46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
24-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-7
L2
Current streak
L3
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Howard: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 29 sig / 0 TD
John Howard
Lorenz Larkin
32
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
73
55
Total strikes landed
46
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
198s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
L3
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—