Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cathal Pendred
Sean Spencer
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28
18-4-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
13-6
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pendred: 49 sig / 4 TD ·
Spencer: 52 sig / 0 TD
Cathal Pendred
Sean Spencer
50
Sig strikes landed
38
115
Sig strikes attempted
111
59
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
13-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—