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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Felice Herrig vs Lisa Ellis

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Lisa Ellis
80% 20%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Herrig: 8 sig / 1 TD · Ellis: 4 sig / 2 TD
Felice Herrig
Lisa Ellis
46
Sig strikes landed
45
105
Sig strikes attempted
103
73
Total strikes landed
73
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Felice Herrig

"Lil Bulldog"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Lisa Ellis

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
32