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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Bec Rawlings vs Heather Clark

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Bec Rawlings
Heather Clark
64% 36%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rawlings: 69 sig / 0 TD · Clark: 56 sig / 1 TD
Bec Rawlings
Heather Clark
37
Sig strikes landed
39
87
Sig strikes attempted
80
67
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bec Rawlings

"Rowdy"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Heather Clark

"Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34