Main
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens vs Charles Oliveira
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Charles Oliveira
13%
87%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
29
Age
Δ 3y
25
29-24
Career record
Δ 23 pp
38-11
L1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stephens: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 43 sig / 2 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Charles Oliveira
33
Sig strikes landed
32
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
47
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—