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🏆 Title fight Main Women's Strawweight

Carla Esparza vs Rose Namajunas

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Rose Namajunas
65% 35%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
27
Age
Δ 5y
22

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Esparza: 42 sig / 5 TD · Namajunas: 28 sig / 1 TD
Carla Esparza
Rose Namajunas
50
Sig strikes landed
49
94
Sig strikes attempted
112
79
Total strikes landed
72
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
166s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Carla Esparza

"Cookie Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Rose Namajunas

"Thug"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23