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Prelims2 Welterweight

Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Tim Means

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Tim Means
50% 50%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
17-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
34-17-1
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alexandre Junior: 36 sig / 1 TD · Means: 43 sig / 1 TD
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Tim Means
31
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
83
39
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marcio Alexandre Junior

"Lyoto"
17-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner
W1

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
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L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
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L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
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W UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
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