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Vitor Miranda vs Jake Collier

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Vitor Miranda
Jake Collier
50% 50%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miranda: 14 sig / 0 TD · Collier: 15 sig / 2 TD
Vitor Miranda
Jake Collier
24
Sig strikes landed
37
49
Sig strikes attempted
63
42
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
161s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Vitor Miranda

"Lex Luthor"
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner

Jake Collier

"The Prototype"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26