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Daniel Sarafian vs Antonio Dos Santos

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Daniel Sarafian
Antonio Dos Santos
55% 45%
Why
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sarafian: 24 sig / 0 TD · Dos Santos: 37 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Sarafian
Antonio Dos Santos
26
Sig strikes landed
33
54
Sig strikes attempted
59
42
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Daniel Sarafian

10-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
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L UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
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Blue corner

Antonio Dos Santos

"Junior Alpha"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26