Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Igor Pokrajac
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Igor Pokrajac
62%
38%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
23-10-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
28-14
W1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rogerio de Lima: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Pokrajac: 3 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Igor Pokrajac
25
Sig strikes landed
14
48
Sig strikes attempted
26
34
Total strikes landed
24
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
50s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
L3
Igor Pokrajac
"The Duke"
28-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—