Main
Lightweight
Elias Silverio vs Rashid Magomedov
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Elias Silverio
Rashid Magomedov
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
14-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-2
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Silverio: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Magomedov: 91 sig / 1 TD
Elias Silverio
Rashid Magomedov
53
Sig strikes landed
51
134
Sig strikes attempted
117
71
Total strikes landed
76
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Elias Silverio
"Xuxu"
14-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rashid Magomedov
"Highlander"
21-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—