Main
Light Heavyweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Patrick Cummins
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Patrick Cummins
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
25
Age
Δ 9y
34
12-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-7
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carlos Junior: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Cummins: 62 sig / 4 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Patrick Cummins
24
Sig strikes landed
27
70
Sig strikes attempted
54
62
Total strikes landed
55
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
238s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W2
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—