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Prelims1 Featherweight

Tom Niinimaki vs Renato Moicano

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tom Niinimaki
Renato Moicano
45% 55%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 7y
26
L2
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Niinimaki: 33 sig / 0 TD · Moicano: 48 sig / 1 TD
Tom Niinimaki
Renato Moicano
20
Sig strikes landed
28
40
Sig strikes attempted
55
44
Total strikes landed
51
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
214s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tom Niinimaki

"Stoneface"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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Blue corner

Renato Moicano

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26