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David Michaud vs Garett Whiteley

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic ·Footprint Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
David Michaud
Garett Whiteley
78% 22%
Why
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
11-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
7-4
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Michaud: 77 sig / 4 TD · Whiteley: 75 sig / 0 TD
David Michaud
Garett Whiteley
40
Sig strikes landed
40
86
Sig strikes attempted
81
72
Total strikes landed
57
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
261s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

David Michaud

"BullDawg"
11-4
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
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Blue corner
L2

Garett Whiteley

"Goodnight"
7-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—