Prelims1
Lightweight
Joe Ellenberger vs Bryan Barberena
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Ellenberger
Bryan Barberena
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ellenberger: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Barberena: 63 sig / 0 TD
Joe Ellenberger
Bryan Barberena
22
Sig strikes landed
21
37
Sig strikes attempted
43
51
Total strikes landed
33
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
331s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Ellenberger
"Excalibur"
16-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
Blue corner
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26