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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Claudia Gadelha vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
70% 30%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
19-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gadelha: 27 sig / 7 TD · Jedrzejczyk: 38 sig / 0 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
59
Sig strikes landed
58
142
Sig strikes attempted
146
79
Total strikes landed
80
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Claudia Gadelha

"Claudinha"
19-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
Blue corner
W1

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown