Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Willie Gates
66%
34%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Moraga: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Gates: 22 sig / 0 TD
John Moraga
Willie Gates
34
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
70
46
Total strikes landed
44
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner
Willie Gates
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28