Main
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Matt Mitrione
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Matt Mitrione
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
82"
36
Age
Δ 1y
36
17-12
Career record
Δ 14 pp
13-5
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gonzaga: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitrione: 12 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Matt Mitrione
20
Sig strikes landed
21
45
Sig strikes attempted
39
27
Total strikes landed
31
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
63s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
79%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—