Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Riggs
Ben Saunders
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
78"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Riggs: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Saunders: 4 sig / 0 TD
Joe Riggs
Ben Saunders
26
Sig strikes landed
24
45
Sig strikes attempted
55
47
Total strikes landed
38
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner
W1
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
23-13-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
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L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
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