Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jamie Varner
Drew Dober
41%
59%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
21-12-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
29-16
L3
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Varner: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Dober: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Varner
Drew Dober
43
Sig strikes landed
43
103
Sig strikes attempted
115
59
Total strikes landed
75
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
60s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jamie Varner
21-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
Blue corner
L2
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—