Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Stefan Struve
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Stefan Struve
65%
35%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
84"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
47-20
Career record
Δ 0 pp
33-14
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Struve: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Stefan Struve
24
Sig strikes landed
25
28
Sig strikes attempted
53
32
Total strikes landed
34
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
196s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
L1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—