Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Nate Diaz
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
33-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-13
W2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dos Anjos: 77 sig / 2 TD ·
Diaz: 13 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Nate Diaz
49
Sig strikes landed
55
111
Sig strikes attempted
123
56
Total strikes landed
75
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
185s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—