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Junior Dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic ·Footprint Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Junior Dos Santos
Stipe Miocic
52% 48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
21-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dos Santos: 123 sig / 1 TD · Miocic: 89 sig / 1 TD
Junior Dos Santos
Stipe Miocic
62
Sig strikes landed
60
142
Sig strikes attempted
129
74
Total strikes landed
79
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
37s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
21-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
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W UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
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L UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
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W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
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W UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
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Blue corner
W3

Stipe Miocic

21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
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W UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—