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Richie Vaculik vs Louis Smolka

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Richie Vaculik
Louis Smolka
36% 64%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 8y
23
11-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-10
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vaculik: 74 sig / 2 TD · Smolka: 67 sig / 1 TD
Richie Vaculik
Louis Smolka
38
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
96
56
Total strikes landed
70
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
255s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Richie Vaculik

"Vas"
11-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
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Blue corner
L1

Louis Smolka

"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—