Prelims1
Lightweight
Jake Matthews vs Vagner Rocha
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Vagner Rocha
89%
11%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
20
Age
Δ 12y
32
24-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Matthews: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Rocha: 14 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Vagner Rocha
44
Sig strikes landed
20
69
Sig strikes attempted
32
78
Total strikes landed
26
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
254s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
L1
Vagner Rocha
"Ceara"
14-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—