Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Soa Palelei
Walt Harris
83%
17%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
22-6
Career record
Δ 24 pp
13-11
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Palelei: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Harris: 22 sig / 0 TD
Soa Palelei
Walt Harris
26
Sig strikes landed
5
40
Sig strikes attempted
21
45
Total strikes landed
11
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Soa Palelei
"The Hulk"
22-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—