Prelims1
Middleweight
Caio Magalhaes vs Trevor Smith
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux
·Ginasio Municipal Tancredo Neves
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Magalhaes
Trevor Smith
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
11-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
16-10
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magalhaes: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 2 sig / 0 TD
Caio Magalhaes
Trevor Smith
31
Sig strikes landed
33
62
Sig strikes attempted
55
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
184s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
Blue corner
W1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—