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Main Welterweight

Warlley Alves vs Alan Jouban

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux ·Ginasio Municipal Tancredo Neves
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Alan Jouban
70% 30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
16-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 47 sig / 1 TD · Jouban: 79 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Alan Jouban
14
Sig strikes landed
18
42
Sig strikes attempted
39
32
Total strikes landed
25
1.7
Takedowns landed
-0.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Warlley Alves

16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner
W1

Alan Jouban

"Brahma"
18-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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