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Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint Preux

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux ·Ginasio Municipal Tancredo Neves
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Ovince Saint Preux
68% 32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-19
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rua: 2 sig / 0 TD · Saint Preux: 9 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Ovince Saint Preux
27
Sig strikes landed
31
58
Sig strikes attempted
68
42
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mauricio Rua

"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
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L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
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L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
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W UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
Blue corner
L1

Ovince Saint Preux

27-19
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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W UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
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W UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—