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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Thomas Almeida vs Tim Gorman

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux ·Ginasio Municipal Tancredo Neves
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Tim Gorman
89% 11%
Why
23
Age
Δ 8y
32
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 120 sig / 0 TD · Gorman: 67 sig / 2 TD
Thomas Almeida
Tim Gorman
41
Sig strikes landed
19
76
Sig strikes attempted
56
85
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.50
Knockdowns
-0.10
142s
Control time
280s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Thomas Almeida

"Thominhas"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
L1

Tim Gorman

"The Psycho"
9-5
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
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