Back to UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux
Prelims2 Welterweight

Wagner Silva vs Colby Covington

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux ·Ginasio Municipal Tancredo Neves
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Wagner Silva
Colby Covington
25% 75%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
6-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
18-5
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Silva: 16 sig / 0 TD · Covington: 23 sig / 5 TD
Wagner Silva
Colby Covington
8
Sig strikes landed
33
31
Sig strikes attempted
51
18
Total strikes landed
49
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
78s
Control time
264s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
56%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Wagner Silva

"Wagnao"
6-4
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner
W1

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
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