Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
King Green
Edson Barboza
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-14
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 54 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Edson Barboza
47
Sig strikes landed
45
100
Sig strikes attempted
124
61
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
79s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—