Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Chico Camus
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
25-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pickett: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Camus: 71 sig / 1 TD
Brad Pickett
Chico Camus
36
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
83
57
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner
L1
Chico Camus
"The King"
17-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—