Main
Featherweight
Frankie Edgar vs Cub Swanson
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Cub Swanson
43%
57%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
32-14
W2
Current streak
W6
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Edgar: 93 sig / 7 TD ·
Swanson: 31 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Cub Swanson
54
Sig strikes landed
65
137
Sig strikes attempted
151
75
Total strikes landed
66
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.8
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
222s
Control time
-3s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W6
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—