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Main Heavyweight

Jared Rosholt vs Aleksei Oleinik

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jared Rosholt
Aleksei Oleinik
11% 89%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
28
Age
Δ 9y
37
15-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
61-17-1
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rosholt: 19 sig / 0 TD · Oleinik: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jared Rosholt
Aleksei Oleinik
21
Sig strikes landed
20
44
Sig strikes attempted
36
37
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
221s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Jared Rosholt

15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
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W UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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Blue corner
W1

Aleksei Oleinik

"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
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