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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Ruslan Magomedov vs Josh Copeland

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ruslan Magomedov
Josh Copeland
73% 27%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magomedov: 63 sig / 1 TD · Copeland: 20 sig / 0 TD
Ruslan Magomedov
Josh Copeland
45
Sig strikes landed
36
99
Sig strikes attempted
84
59
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ruslan Magomedov

"Leopard"
15-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
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Blue corner

Josh Copeland

"Cuddly Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32