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Prelims1 Middleweight

Luke Barnatt vs Roger Narvaez

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Barnatt
Roger Narvaez
78% 22%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
31
13-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barnatt: 34 sig / 0 TD · Narvaez: 48 sig / 0 TD
Luke Barnatt
Roger Narvaez
44
Sig strikes landed
36
118
Sig strikes attempted
99
63
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
97s
Control time
9s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Luke Barnatt

"The Bigslow"
13-5
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
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W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
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Blue corner
L1

Roger Narvaez

"Silverback"
8-4
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
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