Main
Lightweight
Matt Wiman vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Wiman
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
62%
38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 5y
37
16-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wiman: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Vallie-Flagg: 80 sig / 0 TD
Matt Wiman
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
55
Sig strikes landed
51
119
Sig strikes attempted
119
70
Total strikes landed
73
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
216s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Wiman
16-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L2
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
16-8-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—