Main
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Dustin Ortiz
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Dustin Ortiz
69%
31%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
29-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 94 sig / 2 TD ·
Ortiz: 37 sig / 2 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Dustin Ortiz
38
Sig strikes landed
37
97
Sig strikes attempted
87
56
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W2
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—