Prelims1
Bantamweight
Marcus Brimage vs Cody Garbrandt
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcus Brimage
Cody Garbrandt
32%
68%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Brimage: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Garbrandt: 49 sig / 1 TD
Marcus Brimage
Cody Garbrandt
39
Sig strikes landed
45
92
Sig strikes attempted
99
41
Total strikes landed
52
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
31s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcus Brimage
"The Bama Beast"
8-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24