Prelims1
Lightweight
Danny Castillo vs Paul Felder
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Paul Felder
41%
59%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
35
Age
Δ 5y
31
17-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Castillo: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Felder: 33 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Paul Felder
26
Sig strikes landed
43
67
Sig strikes attempted
76
44
Total strikes landed
68
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
6.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—