Main
Welterweight
Hector Lombard vs Joshua Burkman
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hector Lombard
Joshua Burkman
80%
20%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
W2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Lombard: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Burkman: 42 sig / 0 TD
Hector Lombard
Joshua Burkman
30
Sig strikes landed
31
67
Sig strikes attempted
70
46
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Hector Lombard
35-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
Blue corner
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35