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Prelims2 Welterweight

Omari Akhmedov vs Mats Nilsson

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Omari Akhmedov
Mats Nilsson
79% 21%
Why
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
21-7-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Akhmedov: 64 sig / 5 TD · Nilsson: 33 sig / 5 TD
Omari Akhmedov
Mats Nilsson
30
Sig strikes landed
16
58
Sig strikes attempted
32
53
Total strikes landed
23
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Omari Akhmedov

"Wolverine"
21-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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Blue corner
L1

Mats Nilsson

11-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—