Back to UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Prelims2 Women's Bantamweight

Alexis Dufresne vs Marion Reneau

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexis Dufresne
Marion Reneau
77% 23%
Why
24
Age
Δ 13y
38
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dufresne: 28 sig / 0 TD · Reneau: 85 sig / 0 TD
Alexis Dufresne
Marion Reneau
19
Sig strikes landed
38
51
Sig strikes attempted
51
52
Total strikes landed
111
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
339s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
56%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alexis Dufresne

"Sneaky Zebra"
6-4
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner

Marion Reneau

"The Belizean Bruiser"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38